The cumulative deficit exploded to ALMOST EIGHT TIMES compared to 2011. By this time last year it amounted to R8.7bn, while for the same period this year it at R69.9bn!
South Africa's trade deficit almost doubled again from R13.8bn in September to R21.2bn in October.
Exports increased by 7.8% month-on-month to R61.1bn while imports jumped 16.7% to R82.3bn, SARS data showed.
Economists failed us AGAIN! The rules of their super PC game (the stock exchange) did not allow for reality.
Economists surveyed by Reuters had expected a trade shortfall of only R15.35bn for October but the data is volatile and thus difficult to forecast they said.
They cannot forecast anything, because they are constantly trying to fool the world and fool the SA public by trying to make things "look good".
South Africa is collapsing faster by the day. it is a falling rock and no one will stop or even slow it's fall.
SA's trade deficit for year reaches R104.6bn - SARS
SARS02 December 2012
Link: http://www.politicsweb.co.za/politicsweb/view/politicsweb/en/page71654?oid=344348&sn=Detail&pid=71616
Revenue Service says a R21.2bn deficit recorded for October 2012
Pretoria, 30 November 2012 - The South African Revenue Service (SARS) today releases trade statistics for October 2012 that record a trade deficit of R21.2 billion.
Summary
The R21.2 billion deficit for October 2012 was due to an increase in exports of 7.8% and an increase in imports of 16.7%.
Exports increased by R4.4 billion (7.8%) and imports increased by R11.8 billion (16.7%).
The increased trade deficit of R21.2 billion for October 2012 was mainly due to increased imports of machinery and electrical appliances, chemical products and vehicles, aircraft and vessels.
The cumulative deficit for the year to date is R104.6 billion compared to R9.4 billion for the same period in 2011.
Trade Highlights by Category
The September to October change (up by 7.8%) in exports of goods reflected increases/decreases mainly in:
Mineral products increased by R2 907 million (22%);
Base metals and articles thereof increased by R1 105 million (16%);
Machinery and electrical appliances increased by R1 067 million (21%);
Products of the chemical or allied industries increased by R 847 million (29%);
Precious and semi-precious stones and metals decreased by R1 931 million (-14%).
The September to October change (up by 16.7%) in imports of goods reflected increases mainly in:
Machinery and electrical appliances increased by R4 313 million (27%);
Products of the chemical or allied industries increased by R1 203 million (19%);
Vehicles, aircraft and vessels increased by R1 052 million (13%);
Mineral products increased by R 854 million (5%);
Original equipment components increased by R 666 million (15%)
Trade Highlights by World Zone
The world zone results for September and October 2012 as given below are unaudited.
Asia: The deficit increased from R 13.4bn in September to R 18.2bn in October 2012. Exports increased by R 3.1bn to R 21.6bn and imports increased by R 7.9bn to R39.8bn.
Europe: The deficit increased from R 8.3bn in September to R 10.9bn in October 2012. Exports increased by R 1.0bn to R 14.1bn and imports increased by R 3.6bn to R25.0bn.
America: The deficit increased from R 1.0bn in September to R 1.5bn in October 2012. Exports increased by R 1.7bn to R 8.4bn and imports increased by R 2.2bn to R 9.9bn.
Africa: The surplus increased from R 3.5bn in September to R 5.5bn in October 2012. Exports increased by R 0.3bn to R 12.2bn and imports decreased by R 1.7bn to R6.7bn.
Oceania: The deficit decreased from R 0.3bn in September to R 0.1bn in October 2012. Exports increased by R 0.1bn to R 0.7bn and imports decreased by R 0.1bn to R0.9bn.
For more detail, visit www.sars.gov.za; Customs and Excise; Trade Data
Statement issued by SARS, November 30 2012
SA Trade deficit widens to R12.2bn
Sep 28 2012 14:54 Reuters
Link: http://www.fin24.com/Economy/Trade-deficit-widens-to-R122bn-20120928
Johannesburg - South Africa's trade deficit widened to R12.2bn in August after a R6.7bn shortfall in July, the South African Revenue Service said on Friday.
Exports decreased by 3.3% month-on-month to R61.4bn in August while imports rose by 4.9% to R73.6bn rand, Sars data showed.
Economists surveyed by Reuters expected a shortfall of R6bn for August but the data is volatile and hard to forecast.
The cumulative deficit for the year to date amounted to R69.9bn compared to R8.7bn for the same period in 2011, Sars said.
Said analyst George Glynos: “It’s a terrible number, absolutely shocking and seriously raises questions about the wisdom of having reduced interest rates at the (July) MPC meeting. It certainly doesn’t argue for another rate cut, that’s for sure.
“Clearly the country is consuming a lot more than it’s producing and this obviously renders the currency environment vulnerable. The rand far more vulnerable to a blow off and it’s a disappointing number.
“It doesn’t bode well for price stability and raises the requirement of South Africa to continue attracting huge portfolio inflows or we have significant rand volatility,” Glynos said.
“It is much wider than anticipated. We have been concerned for a long time about the trade and current account balances and this is continuing a streak of very wide trade deficits which is a risk to the rand in the longer-term. And also at the margin reduces the scope for the Reserve Bank to cut rates again,” said Renaissance Capital economist Elna Moolman.
“The trade balance is another negative surprise, with the deficit almost double what the market had been expecting.
“The trade data for August will not have captured the full impact of the industrial unrest in mining. As such, the market will be braced for even worse trade data still to come. Together with the slowdown that we see underway in South Africa’s key trading partners, this is not good news for the current account deficit. Rand negative," said Razia Khan, head of research Africa, Standard Chartered.
Market reaction
The rand fell to R8.3065 against the dollar by 12:29 GMT from R8.2725 before the data was released at 12:00 GMT.
The yield on the 2015 bond rose to 5.39% from 5.365% while that for the 2026 issue was up at 7.445% from 7.415%.
The trade account recorded its first annual surplus in seven years in 2010 but swung back into deficit last year as rising imports outweighed export receipts.
This weighed on the current account, which widened to 3.3% of GDP in 2011 from 2.8% in 2010.
SA trade gap widens as imports soar
Nov 30 2012 14:36 Reuters
Link: http://www.fin24.com/Economy/SA-trade-gap-widens-as-imports-soar-20121130
Johannesburg - South Africa's trade deficit widened more than expected to R21.2bn in October from R13.8bn in September as imports of machinery, vehicles and aircraft rose, the South African Revenue Service said on Friday.
Exports increased by 7.8% month-on-month to R61.1bn while imports jumped 16.7% to R82.3bn, SARS data showed.
Economists surveyed by Reuters had expected a trade shortfall of R15.35bn for October but the data is volatile and thus difficult to forecast.
"It's obviously a shock, a massive 27% increase in machinery and equipment imports, now that is a very broad area," said Satnlib economist Kevin Lings.
"It includes a whole lot of stuff that we would bring into this country ahead of the Christmas season. That would certainly be one of the factors that is contributing into this.
"So think of it as a build up of inventory ahead of the end of the year season, certainly contributed to the increase in imports.
"We're staring at a very big current account deficit for the fourth quarter of the year and we can see that in the rand, that has come under pressure. Clearly it's improved a little bit more recently, but this all just means that the rand is at risk."
The rand fell to R8.8047/$ by 14:18 from R8.76 before the data was released at 14:00.
The yield on the 2026 bond was up at 7.585% from 7.555%.
On an unadjusted year-on-year basis, economic growth was at 2,3% in the third quarter from a revised 3,1% in the second quarter.
A Reuters poll of 15 economists expected growth to have slowed to 1,5% in the third quarter because of strikes in the mining sector.
SA's economic growth slows
27-NOV-2012 | REUTERS
Link: http://www.sowetanlive.co.za/news/business/2012/11/27/sa-s-economic-growth-slows
South Africa’s economic growth slowed to 1,2% in the third quarter of 2012 on a seasonally adjusted and annualised basis, compared with a revised 3,4% rise in the second quarter, data shows
ANALYST COMMENT
PETER ATTARD MONTALTO, EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIST, NOMURA“It would appear mining was roughly on forecast so the surprise came from other segments most likely effected by the transport workers strike and petrol shortages more than we had expected.
“Overall today’s number probably won’t meaningfully surprise the MPC (central bank monetary policy committee) enough yet to get a cut in January without more international growth shock evidence.
“Given the revision up to the previous quarter on quarter number the amount of surprise here is limited really and shows the economy slowing but with mining a small part of the economy in volume terms the impact of the strike in first round effects remains limited.
“It is the wider second round effects on sentiment and FDI (foreign direct investment) that we have to wait for into next year that can ultimately prompt the MPC into a cut.”
BACKGROUND:
— Recovery in Africa’s largest economy has been hesitant since a 2009 recession. The central bank cut interest rates by 50 basis points in July to help support economic growth.
— A festering debt crisis in Europe, which takes in a quarter of South Africa’s exports, is weighing on domestic growth prospects.
— Three months of violent strikes in the mining sector have also put an added drag on prospects for growth.
— The Finance Ministry and the central bank cut growth projections to 2,6% this year, in line with the IMF.
— The ministry has said the economy needs to grow by 7% on a sustained basis to make a dent on a 25% unemployment rate.
The strange thing about this is that some people may be surprised. James Watson was correct. For his politely expressed reservations about Africa, he was kicked out of the UK.
ReplyDeleteStrange place, the UK.
No wonder Scotland is going it alone.