Monday, 18 March 2013

Power outages are coming and the SA Rand will plummet

South Africa CANNOT survive 7 days without electricity. The South African currency has weakened 8 percent this year, the most out of 25 emerging-market currencies monitored by Bloomberg.

The history of Africa has consistently shown a particular trend:
  • Revolutionary take-over by a terrorist criminal regime;
  • Corruption, fraud, self-enrichment, while empoverishing the masses;
  • Infrastructure maintenance neglected;
  • Currency collapse as a consequence
  • Anarchy -> revolution -> civil war -> mass killings
Ask yourself how far are we down this path already.....?

When electricity supply collapses:
  • Water supply will collapse;
  • Fuel supply will collapses;
  • Food production, supply and distribution will collapse;
  • Hospitals and health services generally will collapse.
Everything would come to a standstill and South Africa would regress back to a time before WW2.

Are you ready yet?

Eskom supplies 95 percent of the South Africa’s power.

"Eskom is no different from the rest of our infrastructure and we all know how that is falling apart."

"The same people that are responsible for potholes are responsible for our whole infrastructure.  That is a very scary thought!"

"A national blackout will put this country in a civil war overnight. It will not be about political ideologies or who is the mayor of Potch, it will not be about corruption or Affirmative Action. It will be about survival. South Africa is on the brink of a crisis like no other in our history. Eskom is struggling; they admit they are struggling to keep the supply going. If we are going into a winter which resembles the temperature the Northern hemisphere just have, we are in big trouble."

"A week long cold front, with snow and icy temperatures will overload the grid. Conditions like that will make it extremely hard to pick up the grid again." (Read the rest here : South Africa CANNOT survive 7 days without electricity.)

SA Rand set to plunge

South Africa’s rand is set to plummet as the risk of forced blackouts by Eskom rises, according to Nomura Holdings.

The currency may drop to 9.95 per dollar, with past experience as a guide, Peter Attard Montalto, a London-based emerging-markets economist at Nomura, wrote in a research note e-mailed to clients today.

A “more conservative” target for the currency is 9.52 per dollar, he said.

The rand fell 15 percent against the dollar in the first quarter of 2008, when coal shortages and maintenance at power plants forced Eskom to cut electricity to the nation’s mines, a program known as load shedding.

The risk of a repeat this quarter and next year is “very high” after strikes at mines owned by Exxaro Resources, the nation’s second-biggest coal producer, cut supplies to plants, Montalto said.

“The electricity supply situation is extremely tight,” he said.

“The risk of load-shedding is the highest since start 2008. The system can easily be tripped over into load- shedding.”

A fault at Koeberg, South Africa’s only nuclear power plant, has left a Koeberg unit out of action for the past weeks already. Damaged transmission lines from the Cahora Bassa hydropower site in Mozambique, due to floods, and maintenance at other power plants have cut generating capacity by 22 percent, Eskom said on March 11.

The rand also faces risks from labour disputes, riots, violent farm strikes, corruption, political uncertainty, threats of land grabs disguised as 'land redistribution', a current-account deficit near a four-year high, concern about a widening budget shortfall and likely further downgrades of South Africa’s credit rating, Montalto wrote.

The South African currency has already weakened 8 percent this year, the most out of 25 emerging-market currencies monitored by Bloomberg. (Bloomberg News)

South Africa CANNOT survive 7 days without electricity
Nomura: Rand set to plunge
‘Kragonderbrekings kom, rand gaan tuimel’

1 comment:

  1. Hi,

    You really surprised me with this blog post.the content you added for the risk of load-shedding is also good.